Episode 396: Your Emails, Answered
Date February 28, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about scouting based on one swing, how much GMs know, paying young players, psyching out opponents, and more. Topics * If Baseball Were Different * Episode 391 follow-up: Blackouts and regional sports networks * Paying younger players more * GM prospect knowledge * Padres home run contest * Scouting from one swing * Psyching out opponents * Adjusting defensive statistics Intro The Apples in Stereo, "Questions and Answers" Banter Sam is starting an Effectively Wild reliever fantasy league. The stats used will be RA/9 and strikeouts. Email Questions * Vinit (Milwaukee, WI): "If baseball were different, how different would it be? Would it only be slightly different or VERY different?" * Matthew: "On the most recent email show you discussed the concept of blackouts on local games. What you said made a great deal of sense but one thing came to mind; many teams own their own regional sports networks and we can probably agree that this is the most profitable format for a team rather than selling broadcast rights. However why shouldn't a team such as the Red Sox or Orioles or Nationals sell their game directly to the consumer in an MLB.TV team package for more money? Cutout the middle man of cable and make more money, and fans who only get cable get to watch sports would save money as well. Given the wild success of MLBAM and cable appearances of dying, wouldn't it be wise for baseball or teams to pursue a similar strategy?" * Matthew: "Would the increasing amounts of incredibly young stars and career peaks coming at a younger and younger age, do you think we'll see a movement to see younger players treated more fairly? If Mike Trout puts up another 10 WAR season and suffers a career ending injury he would make less money in his career than 'insert washed up bum veteran' will make next season. That seems to punish players that generate most of their value early on, especially pitchers. While unions tend to favor the more senior members do you think that will have to change with the influx of the most popular players being young, especially when other sports like basketball promise big paydays early on?" * Samuel: "Your chat with Nick Piecoro (Episode 394) about Kevin Towers struck some curiosity in my prospect-driven mind. You guys labeled Towers as a 40-man roster kind of guy who sticks to primarily the big league club. This made me wonder how aware MLB GMs are of the so-called pipeline of prospects throughout the league who will soon be with big league clubs. To give you guys a question I will ask this: out of the 30 GMs, how many know who a highly rated but not top 50 kind of prospect, like David Dahl, is?" * Austin: "Padres have a promotion on March 15th in which any fan over the age of 16 can win season tickets if they are able to hit a home run at Petco Park off a pitching machine with only one swing, seeing no more than two pitches. Anyone who played division one baseball or professionally at any level is exempt from the competition. Outside of this being a really great idea and a fun promotion for the Padres, it got me thinking about how bad the Padres offense is going to be. So here it is: what, if anything, could a person without any professional experience do in the setting of this competition that would make the team consider signing them? If a 39 year old softball dad showed up and hit his pitch onto the 3rd deck of the Western Metal Supply Building like Matt Stairs in his prime, would the team consider taking him on as a pinch hitter? Or if a 19 year old built like Carlos Correa with no baseball training and good swing mechanics didn't hit a homer, but ripped a double into the opposite field gap, would the team think twice about offering him a minor league deal?" * Jeff: "Is there any value at the major league level in trying to impact the mental state or focus of your opponent. If before Game 5 of the NLDS the Cardinals had let it slip to the media that they had found that Gerrit Cole was tipping his pitches do you believe that 1) Pirates' coaches would spend enough time trying to find the flaw on video that it would impact the team's preparation or 2) even if Pirates' coaches told Cole that the story was made up and his mechanics were flawless, Cole himself would be worried enough that it would impact his performance. If so, in either case how much would this swing expected winning percentage for the game?" * Eric: "It seems that there are a lot of transcendent defensive performances in the last few years. I was wondering if the stats adjust as defense does. Maybe I'm wrong but in the last few years it seems in the last few years there's been a greater emphasis on defense than during the late 90s and early 2000s, therefore wouldn't even better performance be needed to be a +5 defender? Wouldn't this mean that the incredible numbers being put up by Manny Machado and Carlos Gomez be that much better than a similar score would indicate from 15 years ago? Or is league-wide DRS or UZR simply rising?" Play Index * Sam is inspired by a few sources to look at hitters, by OPS, who have reverse platoon splits. * Setting a 3,000 plate appearance minimum, there are 31 right handed batters with reverse splits. * Setting a 1,000 plate appearance minimum, there are 3 left handed batters with reverse splits. They are Ichiro Suzuki, Kelly Johnson, and Enos Slaughter. Notes * The first part of Vinit's question, 'If baseball were different' how different would it be?' became a recurring theme and unofficial slogan on Effectively Wild as a way to refer to the strange hypotheticals proposed in listener emails. * Sam says that for baseball to be "very different" there would have to be changes that are immediately noticeable after one game. * As of the 2013 season Ichiro Suzuki had a .784 OPS against left handed pitchers and a .775 career OPS. * Sam thinks someone who is 17 years old and hits a ball 420 feet to the opposite field would get a second look from teams at a 'swing for your seats' promotion. He is also upset that kinds under 16 aren't able to participate in the promotion. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 396: Your Emails, Answered Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes